Oceans of Wisdom

we get ASI

2026 / 2027

and proceed to actual honest to god super intelligence

what he is saying that they are going to make a very brief pit stop to wave at "reaching human level"

then that will go away too

when answering

it will happen

the research papers are showing pathways to get there

humans are in the millions or tens of millions

"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes. We are beginning to turn our aim beyond that, to superintelligence in the true sense of the word. We love our current products, but we are here for the glorious future. With superintelligence, we can do anything else. Superintelligent tools could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own, and in turn massively increase abundance and prosperity."

their only weakness for now is that their context windows are still much lower than humans

we will have generic middle and upper middle white collar AIs soon

the first para is just what I mentioned

from here: https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections


let me quote something

but it won't stop there

in and of itself this will be like the most revolutionary thing in history

o4/o5 + tools

we will have effectively generic white collar workers

one on AI and one on US

but i want to lay out two world view items first

so back to AGI; I see the 6529 specific stuff above and will come to them

lol

because my regular coffee now tastes like crap

and now I am a broken man

but roaster has been broken for 2 weeks

from Costa Rica

well above normal white collar worker

is my guess

in quality

o5-pro with long web browsing sections is elite research scientist

Deep Research is o3 + web browsing

and you can see the direction

at this stage the frontier models make fewer mistakes than most humans imho

managerial AGI will have been achieved then

that can browse the web, connect to databases, connect to github etc

imagine a model smarter than almost all of us

so 6-18 months from now

but it is a big priority for them

still imperfect

operator, deep research

you can see openai working on it

there is a parallel exercise called "give them tools"

so I expect soon in pure reasoning the models will pass almost every human this year

and i am decent at math

certainly better at math than me

o3-pro is an elite level mathematician or computer programmer

all of those are 2025 releases

but OK o3-pro, o4-pro, max o5-pro will get there